1/23/2020

Propeller of Growth

"Progressives, calling for greater government intervention, often cite the work of Yale political scientist Jacob Hacker, who argues that income has become unstable and retirement riskier. But economists, using Social Security earning records, found that income volatility (as represented by year-to-year income shocks) has actually decreased since the late 1970s, and that job stability has increased since the 1980s, with average job tenure longer now than it was then. It’s true that breadwinning has gotten riskier, especially for low-income workers, who face longer spells of unemployment during recessions and higher vulnerability to being replaced by technology. But progressive policymakers are addressing the wrong problems, focusing on solutions better suited to dealing with year-to-year wage volatility than with systemic risks associated with long-term economic change.


California recently enacted AB5, a law regulating freelance “gig work,” the growing popularity of which is often regarded as a signal of the American worker’s tenuous economic situation. But contrary to popular perception, gig work is usually supplementing traditional work, not replacing it. The number of workers who claim contract work as their primary job has fallen; what has gone up is the number of Americans who do gig work to smooth out income drops or periods of unemployment. The flexibility of freelance labor is what makes gig work a valuable risk-reduction strategy—it needn’t interfere with a primary job, job training, or a job search. California’s effort to standardize gig work, with regular hours and benefits, is thus counterproductive, and will result in fewer options for workers.

Counterproductive, too, are bigger policies targeted to the middle- and upper middle-income brackets. Both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren would like to eliminate risks associated with middle-class wealth by making college free, cancelling student debt, and expanding Social Security. But college-educated workers, even indebted ones, have lower rates of unemployment and experience joblessness for shorter periods. They are also better equipped to acquire new job skills years after they finish college. Given limited government resources, ameliorating risk for the college-educated should be a lower priority than helping less-educated workers in rural areas, who face higher risks of economic hardship."