"At some point I realized that if something were obviously going to happen, you’d already see signs of it happening. When there is a true theoretical breakthrough, the low hanging fruit are grabbed almost immediately.
Here’s another analogy. If a recession were obviously going to happen, you’d already see signs of recession.
And this is why I’m skeptical of the media predictions that a war on big tech is just around the corner. For years, the media has been telling us that big tech is increasingly unpopular with (American) politicians of both parties, and that more taxes, regulations, antitrust enforcement, etc., are coming down the road. But when I look at what’s actually happening, I see little evidence for this claim. I see the US trying to advance the interests of Big Tech in its trade negotiations (at the expense of old line manufacturing.) I see the US objecting to a French tax on big tech revenues earned in France."